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The engine driving the Kelly system is the law of large numbers. In a 1713 treatise on probability, Swiss mathematician Jakob Bernoulli propounded a law that has been misunderstood by gamblers (and investors) ever since.
William Poundstone
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William Poundstone
Age: 69
Born: 1955
Born: March 29
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Kelly was aware that there is one type of favorable bet available to everyone the stock market.
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Samuelson spotted a mistake in Bacheliers work. Bachelier's model had failed to consider that stock prices cannot fall below zero.
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Expectation is a statistical fiction, like having 2.5 children.
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