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Average isn't so hot at the race track given those steep track takes. Average is pretty decent for stocks, something like 6 percent above the inflation rate. For a buy-and -hold investor, commissions and taxes are small.
William Poundstone
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William Poundstone
Age: 69
Born: 1955
Born: March 29
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More quotes by William Poundstone
There were many at Bell Labs and MIT who compared Shannon's insight to Einstein's. Others found that comparison unfair - unfair to Shannon.
William Poundstone
Expectation is a statistical fiction, like having 2.5 children.
William Poundstone
In real conversations, we are always trying to outguess each other.
William Poundstone
The assumption that anything true is knowable is the grandfather of paradoxes.
William Poundstone
The best paradoxes raise questions about what kinds of contradictions can occur-what species of impossibilities are possible.
William Poundstone
Paradox is thus a much deeper and universal concept than the ancients would have dreamed. Rather than an oddity, it is a mainstay of the philosophy of science.
William Poundstone
The ultimate compound return rate is acutely sensitive to fat tails.
William Poundstone
Samuelson spotted a mistake in Bacheliers work. Bachelier's model had failed to consider that stock prices cannot fall below zero.
William Poundstone
There is a deep connection between Bernoulli's dictum and John Kelly's 1956 publication. It turns out that Kelly's prescription can be restated as this simple rule: When faced with a choice of wagers or investments, choose the one with the highest geometric means of outcomes.
William Poundstone
The best strategy is one that offers the highest compound return consistent with no risk of going broke.
William Poundstone
Shannon's most radical insight was that meaning was irrelevant.
William Poundstone
A bit is worth 10,000 basis points.
William Poundstone
The story of the Kelly system is a story of secrets - or if you prefer, a story of entropy.
William Poundstone
Are there any mythical beasts which aren't simple pastiches of nature? Centaurs, minotaurs, unicorns, griffons, chimeras, sphinxes, manticores, and the like don't speak well for the human imagination. None is as novel as a kangaroo or starfish.
William Poundstone
People tend to be clueless about prices. Contrary to economic theory, we don't really decide between A and B by consulting our invisible price tags and purchasing the one that yields the higher utility, he says. We make do with guesstimates and a vague recollection of what things are “supposed to cost.”
William Poundstone
At a bare minimum, understanding entails being able to detect an internal contradiction: a paradox.
William Poundstone
Kelly was aware that there is one type of favorable bet available to everyone the stock market.
William Poundstone
Samuelson, however, hedged his personal bets - by putting some of his own money in Berkshire Hathaway.
William Poundstone
Your second ducat, like your second million, is never quite as sweet.
William Poundstone
Use entropy and you can never lose a debate, von Neumann told Shannon - because no one really knows what entropy is.
William Poundstone
