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Do not trust financial market risk models. Despite the predilection of some analysts to model the financial markets using sophisticated mathematics, the markets are governed by behavioral science, not physical science.
Seth Klarman
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Seth Klarman
Age: 67
Born: 1957
Born: May 21
New York City
New York
Seth Andrew Klarman
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Behavioral
Market
Analysts
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More quotes by Seth Klarman
Be focused on process and not outcome
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There is no amount of bad news that the markets cannot see past.
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Patience and discipline can make you look foolishly out of touch until they make you look prudent and even prescient
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It is crucial in a sound investment process to search a mile wide than a mile deep with they find something - also.. never stop digging for information.
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While it might seem that anyone can be a value investor, the essential characteristics of this type of investor-patience, discipline, and risk aversion-may well be genetically determined.
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Interestingly, we have beaten the market quite handsomely over this time frame, although beating the market has never been our objective. Rather, we have consistently tried not to lose money and, in doing so, have not only protected on the downside but also outperformed on the upside.
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At Baupost, we constantly ask: 'What should we work on today?' We keep calling and talking. We keep gathering information. You never have perfect information. So you work, work and work. Sometimes we thumb through ValuLine. How you fill your inbox is very important.
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Macro worries are like sports talk radio. Everyone has a good opinion which probably means that none of them are good.
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Value investing is the discipline of buying shares at a significant discount from their current underlying values and holding them until more of their value is realised. The element of a bargain is the key to the process.
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Having clients with a long-term orientation is crucial. Nothing else is as important to the success of an investment firm.
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The near absence of bargains works as a reverse indicator for us. When we find there is little worth buying, there is probably much worth selling.
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A commodity doesn't have the same characteristics as a security, characteristics that allow for analysis. Other than a recent sale or appreciation due to inflation, analyzing the current or future worth of a commodity is nearly impossible.
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Avoiding where others go wrong is an important step in achieving investment success. In fact, it almost assures it.
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Value investing is predicated on the efficient market hypothesis being wrong.
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To achieve long-term success over many financial market and economic cycles, observing a few rules is not enough. Too many things change too quickly in the investment world for that approach to succeed. It is necessary instead to understand the rationale behind the rules in order to appreciate why they work when they do and don't when they don't.
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When a stock is selling at a discount to liquidation value per share, a near rock-bottom appraisal, it is frequently an attractive investment.
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While some might mistakenly consider value investing a mechanical tool for identifying bargains, it is actually a comprehensive investment philosophy that emphasizes the need to perform in-depth fundamental analysis, pursue long-term investment results, limit risk, and resist crowd psychology.
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At equal returns, public investments are generally superior to private investments not only because they are more liquid but also because amidst distress, public markets are more likely than private ones to offer attractive opportunities to average down.
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When you buy bargains and they become better bargains, it is easy to start to question yourself, which can impair your judgement. Real or imagined concerns about client redemptions, employee defections can greatly influence behavior away from rational.
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There are only a few things investors can do to counteract risk: diversify adequately, hedge when appropriate, and invest with a margin of safety. It is a precisely because we do not and cannot know all the risks of an investment that we strive to invest at a discount. The bargain element helps to provide a cushion for when things go wrong.
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