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If inflation-adjusted interest rates decline in a given country, its currency is likely to decline.
Ray Dalio
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Ray Dalio
Age: 75
Born: 1949
Born: August 8
Businessman
Hedge Fund Manager
Investor
Jackson Heights
Queens
Raymond Dalio
Raymond Thomas Dalio
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Inflation
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Interest
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Each person assesses each other person's credibility on different dimensions, because people are strong and weak in different things.
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An economy is not a complicated thing it just has a lot of moving parts.
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Since the only way you are going to find solutions to painful problems is by thinking deeply about them - i.e., reflecting - if you can develop a knee-jerk reaction to pain that is to reflect rather than to fight or flee, it will lead to your rapid learning/evolving.
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It is a law of nature that you must do difficult things to gain strength and power. As with working out, after a while you make the connection between doing difficult things and the benefits you get from doing them, and you come to look forward to doing these difficult things.
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The pain of problems is a call to find solutions rather than a reason for unhappiness and inaction, so it's silly, pointless, and harmful to be upset at the problems and choices that come at you (though it’s understandable).
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We don't know what truth is anymore. You or other media people can say there's no problem, but you're losing your credibility. There's distortion, and it's hurting our society. And as a result of that, there will be forces that, one way or another, are going to naturally bring that into equilibrium.
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The media has the power to create an entrenched perception of reality that's incorrect.
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The more you think you know, the more closed-minded you'll be.
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Some people seek to understand, and some people seek to portray what they want to portray.
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The main reason I write the daily observations is because I want to know where I'm wrong. So lots of times if somebody points something out it helps me, and I want to have a diversified bet of uncorrelated bets.
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I'm scared of people with power making the decision.
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To test if you are worrying too much about looking good, observe how you feel when you find out you've made a mistake or don't know something.
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When growth is slower than expected, stocks go down. When inflation is higher than expected, bonds go down. When inflation's lower than expected, bonds go up.
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One of the greatest sources of problems in our society arises from people having loads of wrong theories in their heads - often theories that are critical of others - that they won't test by speaking to the relevant people about them. Instead, they talk behind people's backs, which leads to pervasive misinformation.
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