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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Accurate
Ones
Masquerade
Forecasts
Precise

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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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