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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Precise
Accurate
Ones
Masquerade
Forecasts

More quotes by Nate Silver

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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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