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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Forecasts
Precise
Accurate
Ones
Masquerade

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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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