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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Accurate
Ones
Masquerade
Forecasts
Precise

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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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