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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Accurate
Ones
Masquerade
Forecasts
Precise

More quotes by Nate Silver

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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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