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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Masquerade
Forecasts
Precise
Accurate
Ones

More quotes by Nate Silver

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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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