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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Accurate
Ones
Masquerade
Forecasts
Precise

More quotes by Nate Silver

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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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