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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Masquerade
Forecasts
Precise
Accurate
Ones

More quotes by Nate Silver

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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
Nate Silver