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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Mean
Apologizing
Accountability
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More quotes by Nate Silver

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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
Nate Silver
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
Nate Silver
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
Nate Silver
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
Nate Silver