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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Mean
Apologizing
Accountability
Doesn

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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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