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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Forecasts
Influence
System
Trying
Forecast

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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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