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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
System
Trying
Forecast
Forecasts
Influence

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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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