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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Trying
Forecast
Forecasts
Influence
System

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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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