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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
System
Trying
Forecast
Forecasts
Influence

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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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