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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Forecast
Forecasts
Influence
System
Trying

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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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