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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Forecast
Forecasts
Influence
System
Trying

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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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