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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Forecast
Forecasts
Influence
System
Trying

More quotes by Nate Silver

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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
Nate Silver