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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Influence
System
Trying
Forecast
Forecasts

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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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