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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Remember
Many
Make
Impression
Opportunities
Congress
Public
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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