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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Opportunity
Doesn
Remember
Many
Make
Impression
Opportunities
Congress
Public

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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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