Quote

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
People
Weigh
Intuitive
Tend
Already
Information
Sense
Light
Good
Overrate

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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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