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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
People
Weigh
Intuitive
Tend
Already
Information
Sense
Light
Good
Overrate
More quotes by Nate Silver
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
Nate Silver
I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
Nate Silver
You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
Nate Silver
Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
Nate Silver
I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
Nate Silver
