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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Tend
Already
Information
Sense
Light
Good
Overrate
People
Weigh
Intuitive
More quotes by Nate Silver
I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
Nate Silver
Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
Nate Silver
I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
Nate Silver
Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
Nate Silver
If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
Nate Silver
Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
Nate Silver
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
Nate Silver
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
Nate Silver
I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
Nate Silver
If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
Nate Silver
Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
Nate Silver
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
Nate Silver
I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
Nate Silver
First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
Nate Silver
I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
Nate Silver
The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
Nate Silver
People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
Nate Silver
All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
Nate Silver
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Nate Silver
I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
Nate Silver
