Quote

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
People
Weigh
Intuitive
Tend
Already
Information
Sense
Light
Good
Overrate

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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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