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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Intuitive
Tend
Already
Information
Sense
Light
Good
Overrate
People
Weigh
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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