Quote

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Tend
Already
Information
Sense
Light
Good
Overrate
People
Weigh
Intuitive

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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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