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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Light
Good
Overrate
People
Weigh
Intuitive
Tend
Already
Information
Sense

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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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