Quote

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
People
Weigh
Intuitive
Tend
Already
Information
Sense
Light
Good
Overrate

More quotes by Nate Silver

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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
Nate Silver
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
Nate Silver
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
Nate Silver
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
Nate Silver
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
Nate Silver