Quote

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Intuitive
Tend
Already
Information
Sense
Light
Overrate
Good
People
Weigh

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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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