Quote

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Tend
Already
Information
Sense
Light
Good
Overrate
People
Weigh
Intuitive

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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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