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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Good
Overrate
People
Weigh
Intuitive
Tend
Already
Information
Sense
Light

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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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