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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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