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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Predictions
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Testing
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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