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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver
Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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