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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Situation
Testing
Making
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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