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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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