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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Testing
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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