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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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