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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Events
Policy
President
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Foreign
Majors
Major
Congress
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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