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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Foreign
Majors
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Congress
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Events
Policy
President
Event
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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