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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Major
Congress
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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