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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Congress
Gets
Events
Policy
President
Event
Doesn
Foreign
Majors
Major

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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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