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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Foreign
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More quotes by Nate Silver
If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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