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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Think
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Control
People
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver