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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Modeled
Wells
Well
Things

More quotes by Nate Silver

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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
Nate Silver