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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Wells
Well
Things
Modeled

More quotes by Nate Silver

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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
Nate Silver
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
Nate Silver
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
Nate Silver
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
Nate Silver
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
Nate Silver
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
Nate Silver
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
Nate Silver
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
Nate Silver
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
Nate Silver
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
Nate Silver
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
Nate Silver
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Nate Silver
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
Nate Silver