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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Modeled
Wells
Well
Things

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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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