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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Modeled
Wells
Well
Things

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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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