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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver
You get steely nerves playing poker.
Nate Silver
A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
Nate Silver
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
Nate Silver
You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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