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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Still
People
Ephemeral
Appreciate
Success
Stills

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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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