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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Ephemeral
Appreciate
Success
Stills
Still
People

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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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