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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Ephemeral
Appreciate
Success
Stills
Still
People

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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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