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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Ephemeral
Appreciate
Success
Stills
Still
People

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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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