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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Noise
Lose
Loses
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Often
Accentuate
Political
Signal
Doe
Coverage
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More quotes by Nate Silver
Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
Nate Silver
If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
Nate Silver
I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
Nate Silver
Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
Nate Silver
I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
Nate Silver
Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
Nate Silver
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
Nate Silver
Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
Nate Silver
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Nate Silver
Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
Nate Silver
I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
Nate Silver
To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
Nate Silver
I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
Nate Silver
Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
Nate Silver
I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
Nate Silver
We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
Nate Silver
People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
Nate Silver
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
Nate Silver
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
Nate Silver
New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
