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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Doe
Coverage
Signals
Frequently
Noise
Lose
Loses
Accentuates
Often
Accentuate
Political
Signal
More quotes by Nate Silver
I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
Nate Silver
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Nate Silver
The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
Nate Silver
