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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Noise
Lose
Loses
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Often
Accentuate
Political
Signal
Doe
Coverage
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More quotes by Nate Silver
People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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