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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Political
Signal
Doe
Coverage
Signals
Frequently
Noise
Lose
Loses
Accentuates
Often
Accentuate
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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