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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Happen
Funny
Bigs
Happens
Human
Humans
Intersect
Things
Data
Judgment

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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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