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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Judgment
Happen
Funny
Bigs
Happens
Human
Humans
Intersect
Things
Data

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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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