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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Things
Data
Judgment
Happen
Funny
Bigs
Happens
Human
Humans
Intersect

More quotes by Nate Silver

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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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