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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Judgment
Happen
Funny
Bigs
Happens
Human
Humans
Intersect
Things
Data
More quotes by Nate Silver
Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
Nate Silver
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
Nate Silver
I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
Nate Silver
Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
Nate Silver
I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
Nate Silver
Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
Nate Silver
Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
Nate Silver
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Nate Silver
Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
Nate Silver
We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
Nate Silver
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
Nate Silver
I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
Nate Silver
First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
Nate Silver
You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
Nate Silver
I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
Nate Silver
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
Nate Silver
I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
Nate Silver
If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
Nate Silver
The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
Nate Silver
You get steely nerves playing poker.
Nate Silver