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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Things
Data
Judgment
Happen
Funny
Bigs
Happens
Human
Humans
Intersect

More quotes by Nate Silver

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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
Nate Silver
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
Nate Silver