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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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