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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver
First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
Nate Silver
I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
Nate Silver
I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
Nate Silver
Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
Nate Silver
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
Nate Silver