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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver
Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
Nate Silver
I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
Nate Silver
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
Nate Silver
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Nate Silver
People have different ways of interpreting history.
Nate Silver
I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
Nate Silver
Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
Nate Silver
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
Nate Silver
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
Nate Silver
People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
Nate Silver
When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
Nate Silver
I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
Nate Silver
Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
Nate Silver
Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
Nate Silver
I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
Nate Silver
I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
Nate Silver
Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
Nate Silver
We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
Nate Silver
People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
Nate Silver
I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
Nate Silver
