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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver
You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
Nate Silver
I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
Nate Silver
If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
Nate Silver
I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
Nate Silver
