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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver

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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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