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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver
To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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