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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver
I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
Nate Silver
I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
Nate Silver
Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
Nate Silver
If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
Nate Silver