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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Thinking
Reporters
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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