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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Look
Looks
Pundits
Really
Bullshit
World
Leads
Plenty
Basically
Discipline
High

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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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