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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Discipline
High
Look
Looks
Pundits
Really
Bullshit
World
Leads
Plenty
Basically

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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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