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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Game
Economy
Games
Always
Played
Rules
Baseball

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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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