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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Rules
Baseball
Game
Economy
Games
Always
Played

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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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