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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Games
Always
Played
Rules
Baseball
Game
Economy

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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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