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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Economy
Games
Always
Played
Rules
Baseball
Game

More quotes by Nate Silver

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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
Nate Silver
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
Nate Silver
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
Nate Silver
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
Nate Silver