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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Rules
Baseball
Game
Economy
Games
Always
Played

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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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