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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Baseball
Game
Economy
Games
Always
Played
More quotes by Nate Silver
Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
Nate Silver
All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
Nate Silver
People have different ways of interpreting history.
Nate Silver
I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
Nate Silver
You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
Nate Silver
I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
Nate Silver
People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
Nate Silver
Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
Nate Silver
I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
Nate Silver
I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
Nate Silver
Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
Nate Silver
Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
Nate Silver
Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
Nate Silver
I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
Nate Silver
If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
Nate Silver
I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
Nate Silver
Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
Nate Silver
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
Nate Silver