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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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